The initial spike to the 1.0660/70 post-Payrolls has quickly fizzled out, leaving EUR/USD trading in the 1.0650 area as markets continue to digest the US docket. EUR/USD upside capped at 1.0690/1.0700 Spot keeps meandering the daily range following mixed results from the US labour market during November, with market participants still adjusting to the unexpected contraction of Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy of wage inflation. Other than that, the pair is managing well to keep the trade within the daily range, with the upside so far capped by the 1.0690/1.0700 band, where are located today’s top and the 23.6% Fibo of the November drop, all amidst a generalized softer tone around the buck.
Shaun Osborne, Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that they see GBP/USD consolidating ahead of another push lower, rather than rebounding at this point.
Fibonacci Retracements Analysis September 16, 2016 EUR/USD “Euro vs US Dollar” Euro is still traded in the flat shape boundaries.
The Mexican peso rose sharply against the US dollar on Friday and erased weekly losses. USD/MXN is about to end the week near 18.50 after trading close to 19.00 just two days ago. The pair fell from 18.75 to 18.53 after the US employment report.
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Gold was seen struggling for a direction and remained confined within a narrow trading range, with mild positive bias. Currently hovering around $1173 region, all set to post fourth consecutive week of declines, the precious metal seesawed between tepid gains and minor losses on the back of mixed US monthly jobs report .
The US Dollar Index – which gauges the greenback vs. its main rivals – has now returned to the 101.00 neighbourhood, coming down from a failed attempt to advance further north of 101.20.
On the last trading day of the week, major US equity indices opened flat, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite index on track for weekly declines. During opening hour of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down nearly 30-point to 19,160, while the broader S&P 500 index was absolutely flat near yesterday’s closing level around 2,192. Meanwhile, tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite outperformed the broader indices and gained over 15-point to 5,267.
The Russian currency is now intensifying its upside momentum vs. the buck, sending USD/RUB to the area of daily lows in sub-64.00 levels. USD/RUB weaker on US data, oil The bearish fashion around the greenback continues to weigh on the pair today, which is so far printing its third consecutive session with losses and deflating from weekly tops in the mid-65.00s.
Talking Points: The CAC 40 has gapped lower on the open, to trade near the bottom of an ongoing consolidation range. This decline in the CAC 40 has occurred as a general decline in European equities markets is occurring this morning. Top losers for the Index includes BNP Paribas (-2.67%) and AXA (-2.43%)
Talking Points: – Swiss GDP was flat in Q3’16 , well below market expectations of an expansion to + 0.3%. – The SNB is highly unlikely to announce additional stimulus when it meets on December 15 .
Talking Points: – Job growth came in just below expectations, still strong enough to not disrupt the overarching trend. – The unemployment and undermployment rates fell on weaker labor force participation.
Talking Points: – December US NFPs look to come in around +180K; breakeven pace of jobs growth is around +100-120K, so even a middling, ‘Goldilocks’ would be good enough to drive down the unemployment rate. – Fed funds futures continue to price 100% chance of Fed hike in December; only a severe miss will weigh on hike oddS – asymmetrical risk. – Join the DailyFX Live Trading Room today at 13:15 GMT for live coverage of NFPs with Currency Analyst David Song
What’s inside: The DAX continues series of lower higher and lower lows Trading beneath lower parallel of channel Looking for the post-Brexit trend-line as a target To receive Paul’s analysis directly via email, please sign up here. On Wednesday, we looked at the DAX up close and made note of the lower highs, lower lows developing on the 60-minute time-frame. The market failed to push above resistance surrounding 10700 that day, then slipped back lower making good on continuing the series of lower highs and lower lows
Analysis for December 2 nd , 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” The EUR/USD pair is still moving in the fifth ascending structure to reach the target at 1.0700. Possibly, the market may reach this target with the extension .
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Analysis for December 2 nd , 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” The EUR/USD pair is still consolidating. Yesterday, the price couldn’t reach the retracement of 23.6% and reverse to the downside.
Talking Points: After declining as much as much as 114 pips in yesterday’s trading, the EUR/USD is still consolidating ahead of tomorrow’s NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) employment data release. Tomorrow news is expected in at a reported 180k, however any deviation from this value may increase market volatility and cause the EUR/SUD to break from its daily range. Technically, the range is defined by the previous swing high put in place on November 28 th at a price of 1.0685
Talking Points USD/JPY rally eyeing near-term resistance confluence ahead of U.S. NFP Updated targets & invalidation levels Clic k H ere to be added to Michael’s email distribution list
Talking Points: – GBP/USD Paves Larger Relief Rally Amid Easing Fears of ‘Hard Brexit.’ – NZD/USD Fails to Extend Near-Term Bullish Series Ahead of NFP Report.
Talking Points: – ISM Manufacturing rose to match the 2016 high of 53.2 – Economic data has continued to be strong overall – USD slowed its trek higher on the data, following huge gains over the past few weeks. The ISM Manufacturing survey for November came in at 53.2 vs expectations of 52.5 and a previous reading of 51.9.
Talking Points: – November was a big month for markets as the ‘Trump Trade’ drove some significant price action moves. – Tomorrow brings us our first piece of post-Trump data out of the United States with the release of November Non-Farm Payrolls
Analysis for December 1 st , 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” The EUR/USD pair is forming the fifth ascending structure to reach 1.0700. After that, the instrument may be corrected towards 1.0604. GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar” The GBP/USD pair is still growing towards 1.2592.
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Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2499, up 0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2517 and low at 1.2420. Sterling has been robust in the wake of renewed pressures from the greenback across the board after a series of good enough data this week that leaves a Fed hike fully on the table for December.
Fed Cleveland’s President Loretta Mester was on the wires, via Reuters, noting that raising interest rates would be a prudent step Key headlines (via Reuters): Prospects are likely higher for changes in fiscal, immigration, infrastructure and trade policies Says ‘very uncertain’ how those changes will affect inflation, employment; ‘devil will be in the details’ Postponing hikes for too long would raise risks of recession and financial instability; fed not yet behind curve
Fed’s Governor Jerome Powell crossed the wires last minutes, via Reuters, stating that an increase in inflation compensation is a “good thing”. Key headlines (via Reuters): Should a patient to see how fiscal policy unfolds Focus on time and rate change may add to confusion Communication should emphasize uncertainty of forecast Dot plot changes over time reveal views on policy path Dot plot isn’t useful predictor of near-term rate moves
The Canadian economy expanded at a 3.5% rate during the third quarter. According to analysts from Wells Fargo, the fastest quarterly growth in Canada in two years may not be sustainable. They see downward pressure on the Canadian dollar (against the USD) amid monetary policy divergence between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to cut output today, from the beginning of 2017.
Talking Points • Indian third-quarter GDP print misses estimates but still grows 7.3% year-over-year • Rupee under pressure from government’s ‘Demonetisation’ move and Trump win • Reserve Bank of India under pressure to announce a further 0.25% rate cut next week See the DailyFX Analysts’ 4Q forecasts for Crude Oil , the Dollar, Euro , Pound , Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.
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Talking Points: • Brazil’s GDP shrank 0.8% in the third quarter, matching forecasts • The country’s prolonged recession – now 8 quarters long – could become the worst in its history • The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates a further 25 basis points this week Brazil’s economy shrank 0.8% in the third quarter, statistics agency IBGE reported on Wednesday. Growth was down a seasonally adjusted 2.9% compared to the third quarter of 2015.
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Talking Points: – OPEC members agreed to cut by 1.2 million barrels per day . – OPEC is likely to reach out to non-OPEC members to coordinate a deal . – Crude Oil jumped over 12% on the news and earlier reports that such a deal was in the making.